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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.36vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University0.19+8.20vs Predicted
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3Stanford University1.64+2.00vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.09+2.63vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.13-1.17vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+2.69vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy0.88+0.37vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-2.55-0.87vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.54-0.24vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.05-3.43vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-0.39+1.90vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.19-1.71vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-0.84+0.08vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.13+0.74vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.40-0.38vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley0.74-8.28vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-2.59vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.41-3.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.36University of California at Santa Barbara1.4416.2%1st Place
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10.2San Diego State University0.192.5%1st Place
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5.0Stanford University1.6412.4%1st Place
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6.63University of Southern California1.096.9%1st Place
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3.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.1320.0%1st Place
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8.69University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.1%1st Place
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7.37California Poly Maritime Academy0.885.5%1st Place
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7.13University of Washington-2.556.0%1st Place
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8.76Western Washington University0.544.1%1st Place
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6.57University of Hawaii1.057.6%1st Place
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12.9Arizona State University-0.391.5%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Davis-0.193.1%1st Place
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13.08University of California at Irvine-0.840.9%1st Place
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14.74University of California at San Diego-1.130.4%1st Place
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14.62California State University Channel Islands-1.400.7%1st Place
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7.72University of California at Berkeley0.746.7%1st Place
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14.41University of California at Los Angeles-2.100.8%1st Place
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14.7University of California at San Diego-1.410.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 16.2% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Whidden | 12.4% | 14.3% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Headington | 20.0% | 18.4% | 15.0% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Owen Cuyler | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Miller | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 6.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Brayden Money | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 8.2% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 16.4% | 18.6% | 21.3% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 15.7% | 17.2% | 20.2% |
| Katherine Olsen | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 17.9% | 18.9% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 18.2% | 23.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.