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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.09+5.40vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+2.41vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.05+3.71vs Predicted
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4University of Washington-2.55+2.91vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+3.39vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-0.39+6.98vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.13-3.34vs Predicted
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8Stanford University1.64-2.94vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.54-0.51vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.31-1.20vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.19-0.76vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.41+2.72vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University0.19-2.95vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.13+0.72vs Predicted
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15California Poly Maritime Academy0.88-7.76vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-1.40-1.25vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-2.69vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-0.84-4.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.4University of Southern California1.096.7%1st Place
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4.41University of California at Santa Barbara1.4416.1%1st Place
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6.71University of Hawaii1.057.5%1st Place
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6.91University of Washington-2.557.6%1st Place
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8.39University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.5%1st Place
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12.98Arizona State University-0.391.1%1st Place
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3.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.1321.5%1st Place
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5.06Stanford University1.6412.0%1st Place
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8.49Western Washington University0.544.8%1st Place
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8.8University of California at Berkeley0.314.0%1st Place
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10.24University of California at Davis-0.192.2%1st Place
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14.72University of California at San Diego-1.410.4%1st Place
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10.05San Diego State University0.192.7%1st Place
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14.72University of California at San Diego-1.130.6%1st Place
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7.24California Poly Maritime Academy0.886.6%1st Place
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14.75California State University Channel Islands-1.400.4%1st Place
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14.31University of California at Los Angeles-2.100.4%1st Place
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13.15University of California at Irvine-0.840.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Conze | 6.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 16.1% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Miller | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 6.2% |
| Morgan Headington | 21.5% | 19.0% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whidden | 12.0% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 23.6% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 19.2% | 21.6% |
| Owen Cuyler | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 18.0% | 22.1% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 18.1% | 16.3% |
| Brayden Money | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 8.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.