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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.05+5.51vs Predicted
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2Stanford University1.64+3.02vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.09+3.62vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University0.19+5.79vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-1.13+9.59vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.88+1.43vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.13-3.31vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.31+0.94vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-0.51vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-2.55-3.07vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.19-0.85vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-7.52vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.54-4.36vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.39-1.25vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.41-0.11vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-1.40-1.45vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-2.58vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-0.84-4.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51University of Hawaii1.057.8%1st Place
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5.02Stanford University1.6413.4%1st Place
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6.62University of Southern California1.098.3%1st Place
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9.79San Diego State University0.193.0%1st Place
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14.59University of California at San Diego-1.130.5%1st Place
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7.43California Poly Maritime Academy0.885.1%1st Place
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3.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.1320.3%1st Place
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8.94University of California at Berkeley0.313.6%1st Place
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8.49University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.2%1st Place
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6.93University of Washington-2.557.7%1st Place
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10.15University of California at Davis-0.192.2%1st Place
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4.48University of California at Santa Barbara1.4415.4%1st Place
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8.64Western Washington University0.543.9%1st Place
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12.75Arizona State University-0.391.2%1st Place
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14.89University of California at San Diego-1.410.5%1st Place
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14.55California State University Channel Islands-1.400.8%1st Place
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14.42University of California at Los Angeles-2.100.8%1st Place
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13.12University of California at Irvine-0.841.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Bonsager | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whidden | 13.4% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 19.2% | 20.8% |
| Owen Cuyler | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Headington | 20.3% | 18.8% | 16.8% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Maxwell Miller | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 15.4% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 5.9% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 17.8% | 25.2% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 15.1% | 18.4% | 19.3% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 15.9% | 19.5% |
| Brayden Money | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.