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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University0.19+9.08vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.05+4.38vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.13+0.53vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+1.84vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.31+3.66vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.09+0.35vs Predicted
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7University of Washington-2.55-0.22vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.54+0.54vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.41+5.76vs Predicted
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10Stanford University1.64-5.05vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-1.40+3.54vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.19-1.91vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy0.88-5.81vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-5.60vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.39-2.17vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.13-1.35vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-0.84-3.90vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-3.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.08San Diego State University0.192.7%1st Place
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6.38University of Hawaii1.058.1%1st Place
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3.53Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.1322.8%1st Place
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5.84University of California at Santa Barbara1.229.8%1st Place
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8.66University of California at Berkeley0.314.9%1st Place
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6.35University of Southern California1.099.2%1st Place
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6.78University of Washington-2.557.4%1st Place
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8.54Western Washington University0.544.5%1st Place
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14.76University of California at San Diego-1.410.5%1st Place
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4.95Stanford University1.6411.8%1st Place
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14.54California State University Channel Islands-1.400.4%1st Place
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10.09University of California at Davis-0.192.8%1st Place
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7.19California Poly Maritime Academy0.886.5%1st Place
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8.4University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.2%1st Place
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12.83Arizona State University-0.391.1%1st Place
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14.65University of California at San Diego-1.130.7%1st Place
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13.1University of California at Irvine-0.841.5%1st Place
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14.33University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Gormely | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Headington | 22.8% | 18.9% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Maximilian Conze | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Miller | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 17.7% | 22.9% |
| Thomas Whidden | 11.8% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 18.9% | 22.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Owen Cuyler | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 6.4% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 16.1% | 16.5% | 22.8% |
| Brayden Money | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 6.7% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 18.2% | 17.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.