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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.13+2.49vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+3.88vs Predicted
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3Stanford University1.64+1.79vs Predicted
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4University of Washington-2.55+2.87vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University0.19+4.95vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.05+0.31vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University0.54+1.45vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy0.88-0.79vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.13+5.70vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.19+0.04vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-2.41vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-0.39+0.81vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.31-4.12vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.40+0.42vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California1.09-8.59vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.41-1.27vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-2.61vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-0.84-4.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.1324.1%1st Place
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5.88University of California at Santa Barbara1.229.4%1st Place
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4.79Stanford University1.6413.4%1st Place
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6.87University of Washington-2.557.6%1st Place
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9.95San Diego State University0.193.0%1st Place
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6.31University of Hawaii1.058.6%1st Place
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8.45Western Washington University0.544.9%1st Place
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7.21California Poly Maritime Academy0.886.0%1st Place
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14.7University of California at San Diego-1.130.4%1st Place
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10.04University of California at Davis-0.192.7%1st Place
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8.59University of California at Santa Cruz0.823.6%1st Place
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12.81Arizona State University-0.390.8%1st Place
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8.88University of California at Berkeley0.313.5%1st Place
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14.42California State University Channel Islands-1.400.8%1st Place
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6.41University of Southern California1.098.2%1st Place
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14.73University of California at San Diego-1.410.7%1st Place
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14.39University of California at Los Angeles-2.100.8%1st Place
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13.07University of California at Irvine-0.841.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Headington | 24.1% | 19.1% | 15.6% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whidden | 13.4% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Miller | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Owen Gormely | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Owen Cuyler | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 14.5% | 17.5% | 23.6% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| George Soliman | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 5.9% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 17.4% | 19.5% |
| Maximilian Conze | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 17.5% | 24.3% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 17.7% | 17.5% |
| Brayden Money | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.