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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University3.41+2.71vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.54+3.84vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.16+1.31vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.43+2.29vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.16-0.77vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.72-0.48vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook2.59-1.20vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38-1.76vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.29+0.53vs Predicted
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10Penn State University0.22+2.21vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.62+0.28vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo-1.31+3.43vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.56-4.28vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-0.30-0.49vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.22-1.75vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-0.19-2.68vs Predicted
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17Colgate University-0.40-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.71George Washington University3.410.2%1st Place
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5.84Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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4.31University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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6.29Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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4.23Fordham University3.160.2%1st Place
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5.52George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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5.8SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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6.24Cornell University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.53Queen's University1.290.0%1st Place
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12.21Penn State University0.220.0%1st Place
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11.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.620.0%1st Place
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15.43University of Buffalo-1.310.0%1st Place
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8.72Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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13.51University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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13.25Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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13.32Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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13.8Colgate University-0.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Friesecke | 19.7% | 17.9% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 14.2% | 15.5% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 15.9% | 15.5% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 8.4% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Aulthouse | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Kieran Sweeney | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
| Christopher Manson-Hing | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 16.8% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| Peter Smith | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 50.5% |
| Casey Brown | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 14.5% | 16.5% | 19.8% | 10.1% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 9.2% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 15.7% | 16.0% | 9.3% |
| Lindsay Burroughs | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 16.8% | 17.5% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.