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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University3.41+2.63vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.43+4.12vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.16+1.32vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.54+1.96vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.72+0.33vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.62+5.42vs Predicted
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7Queen's University1.29+2.40vs Predicted
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8Colgate University-0.40+5.54vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook2.59-3.10vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.38-3.77vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.56-2.27vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.80-6.76vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University0.55-1.54vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo-1.31+1.42vs Predicted
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15Penn State University0.22-2.71vs Predicted
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16University of Delaware-0.85-1.34vs Predicted
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17Drexel University-0.19-3.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.63George Washington University3.410.2%1st Place
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6.12Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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4.32Fordham University3.160.2%1st Place
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5.96Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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5.33George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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11.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.620.0%1st Place
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9.4Queen's University1.290.0%1st Place
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13.54Colgate University-0.400.0%1st Place
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5.9SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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6.23Cornell University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.73Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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5.24University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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11.46Syracuse University0.550.0%1st Place
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15.42University of Buffalo-1.310.0%1st Place
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12.29Penn State University0.220.0%1st Place
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14.66University of Delaware-0.850.0%1st Place
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13.34Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Friesecke | 22.1% | 17.6% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 16.1% | 14.9% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 10.0% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Manson-Hing | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 15.4% | 14.2% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Brendan Aulthouse | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lindsay Burroughs | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 19.5% | 18.3% | 12.2% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 10.8% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Warner | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 16.0% | 13.8% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Peter Smith | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 20.8% | 47.1% |
| Kieran Sweeney | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 9.1% | 3.9% |
| John Waller | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 16.2% | 25.3% | 24.5% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 17.8% | 15.8% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.