Race 1A

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Adam Ceely 7.6% 5.3% 8.4% 8.1% 7.4% 7.8% 8.7% 9.3% 7.9% 7.1% 8.1% 7.1% 4.2% 2.5% 0.5%
Jackson Hamilton 6.4% 7.5% 7.7% 8.0% 9.6% 8.2% 7.7% 8.4% 9.7% 7.3% 7.4% 5.2% 5.0% 1.6% 0.3%
Nathaniel Johansson 8.5% 9.2% 10.8% 8.6% 7.7% 10.1% 9.5% 8.1% 7.6% 8.2% 6.0% 3.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Bryce Kopp 13.1% 11.1% 12.4% 10.9% 9.7% 9.4% 9.2% 7.5% 5.9% 5.2% 2.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Casey Gowrie 9.6% 11.4% 9.7% 9.5% 8.5% 9.2% 10.0% 8.6% 7.1% 5.6% 4.5% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0%
Matthew Lyons 8.4% 8.1% 6.9% 9.5% 9.5% 8.9% 9.2% 9.8% 8.5% 7.4% 5.7% 5.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Rachel Bryer 20.8% 20.4% 15.8% 12.3% 9.8% 6.9% 5.7% 2.7% 2.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John Cappetta 2.8% 2.7% 3.5% 3.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.0% 6.9% 6.6% 8.4% 12.1% 10.8% 16.0% 8.1% 3.8%
Sam Shannon 5.9% 6.4% 7.0% 9.0% 9.6% 9.2% 8.5% 8.9% 8.6% 8.0% 7.7% 5.4% 3.5% 2.2% 0.1%
Jennifer Lee 1.8% 1.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.9% 1.7% 3.0% 4.8% 4.4% 6.5% 7.6% 10.8% 16.3% 22.6% 14.1%
Jeffrey Adam 2.6% 4.6% 3.0% 4.5% 4.6% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 9.0% 9.0% 10.2% 11.0% 12.6% 8.0% 3.9%
Solomon Tarlin 3.0% 2.7% 2.9% 4.4% 5.9% 6.1% 6.0% 6.1% 7.6% 9.4% 11.9% 14.7% 10.6% 6.9% 1.8%
Henry Dumke 8.0% 7.9% 8.6% 8.9% 8.2% 8.0% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 8.2% 6.7% 4.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.0%
Emmet Todd 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.8% 2.9% 1.5% 2.4% 3.6% 5.3% 5.6% 10.0% 14.0% 27.3% 21.8%
John Tersoni 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 1.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 2.6% 3.3% 5.7% 8.1% 18.2% 53.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.