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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.29+4.39vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.53+2.79vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.51+1.88vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.23+1.57vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.86+1.50vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.92+0.37vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.86-0.49vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.10-2.10vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.21-0.52vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.65-2.84vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.81-4.44vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire1.04-0.96vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut0.51-1.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.39Tufts University3.290.1%1st Place
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4.79Brown University3.530.1%1st Place
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4.88Boston College3.510.1%1st Place
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5.57Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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6.5University of Rhode Island2.860.1%1st Place
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6.37Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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6.51University of Vermont2.860.1%1st Place
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5.9Yale University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.48Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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7.16Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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6.56Harvard University2.810.1%1st Place
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11.04University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
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11.85University of Connecticut0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Swanson | 11.4% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Jennifer Adler | 14.1% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Stephanie Hudson | 12.3% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Chandler Salisbury | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Liv Gunnarsson | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Haley Powell | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| Alexandra Arntsen | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Genoa Warner | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Erica Lush | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 16.8% | 16.1% | 3.8% |
| Phoebe Sprague | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 2.4% |
| Morgan Russom | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Ann Sager | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 32.6% | 32.3% |
| Brooke Doyon | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 22.4% | 57.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.