Race 6A

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Matthew Lyons 8.2% 8.7% 7.8% 10.5% 8.8% 10.2% 8.7% 6.9% 7.6% 7.6% 6.3% 4.1% 3.1% 1.3% 0.2%
Rachel Bryer 23.9% 20.2% 14.6% 11.5% 8.9% 7.5% 5.4% 3.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathaniel Johansson 8.2% 9.5% 9.9% 9.6% 8.1% 8.5% 10.7% 8.2% 7.8% 7.9% 5.2% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0%
Jackson Hamilton 5.4% 6.5% 9.3% 6.9% 9.1% 7.6% 8.5% 8.8% 8.7% 8.1% 8.1% 6.2% 5.4% 1.3% 0.1%
Jeffrey Adam 3.8% 2.9% 4.1% 4.8% 4.4% 4.5% 5.1% 6.6% 8.1% 8.0% 12.0% 12.4% 13.5% 6.7% 3.1%
John Cappetta 2.8% 2.7% 3.8% 3.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 6.9% 7.2% 10.9% 10.2% 13.8% 12.0% 10.0% 3.1%
Jennifer Lee 2.4% 1.2% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 3.4% 2.9% 3.1% 4.1% 5.2% 7.5% 10.6% 18.3% 21.2% 14.0%
Sam Shannon 6.4% 6.5% 8.0% 6.8% 8.1% 8.7% 8.3% 9.7% 8.2% 9.1% 8.4% 5.3% 4.4% 1.5% 0.6%
Casey Gowrie 9.9% 9.6% 10.9% 9.7% 11.0% 10.3% 7.8% 9.3% 8.3% 4.6% 4.5% 2.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Solomon Tarlin 2.9% 3.8% 3.0% 4.9% 4.6% 6.1% 6.6% 8.1% 7.7% 10.9% 9.2% 12.5% 9.6% 7.2% 2.9%
Emmet Todd 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 2.0% 3.2% 2.5% 3.4% 4.0% 6.6% 8.2% 13.3% 26.9% 23.8%
Bryce Kopp 10.8% 11.1% 10.6% 12.4% 10.5% 9.0% 9.3% 8.2% 7.4% 3.9% 3.4% 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Adam Ceely 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 5.9% 8.5% 8.0% 9.1% 7.4% 10.2% 9.4% 8.4% 8.3% 3.9% 1.9% 0.5%
John Tersoni 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 4.2% 5.4% 9.7% 19.5% 51.5%
Henry Dumke 7.5% 9.4% 8.1% 9.9% 9.8% 8.5% 9.1% 8.9% 7.0% 7.8% 5.6% 4.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.