Race 1B

penobscot-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Amina Brown 15.0% 14.7% 12.1% 12.1% 10.9% 8.0% 8.2% 6.1% 5.2% 3.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Frank Reeg 6.1% 7.0% 9.5% 8.4% 8.2% 9.4% 8.2% 9.3% 8.4% 8.5% 7.0% 4.8% 4.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Alexander Tong 20.6% 16.0% 15.4% 12.6% 10.2% 8.1% 7.3% 3.7% 3.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John Wehner 7.7% 9.3% 8.9% 9.3% 8.8% 9.6% 7.9% 9.2% 8.1% 7.4% 7.2% 4.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Peter Girard 4.7% 5.0% 6.6% 4.6% 6.0% 6.3% 6.3% 8.2% 8.7% 10.9% 10.9% 9.3% 6.9% 4.8% 0.8%
Ryan Gershuny 2.1% 3.5% 2.2% 3.3% 3.3% 4.2% 4.9% 5.9% 6.5% 9.5% 11.3% 12.6% 14.8% 12.0% 3.9%
Sarah Fuller 6.8% 4.9% 4.5% 5.1% 7.1% 7.7% 10.4% 7.6% 8.2% 9.2% 8.9% 8.8% 6.5% 3.5% 0.8%
Charlotte List 9.1% 8.1% 9.4% 10.5% 8.1% 9.8% 10.1% 7.8% 8.1% 6.5% 5.6% 3.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Samuel Campbell 2.3% 2.4% 3.1% 3.9% 3.8% 4.9% 5.8% 8.1% 7.7% 9.2% 10.6% 11.9% 13.5% 10.3% 2.5%
Thomas Gallagher 4.0% 3.2% 3.8% 5.9% 6.6% 6.6% 6.3% 8.0% 8.8% 9.2% 11.1% 11.1% 9.3% 4.2% 1.9%
Caden Buckley 1.7% 2.9% 1.1% 2.0% 3.2% 3.8% 4.3% 4.6% 5.7% 7.3% 7.6% 14.6% 15.4% 17.0% 8.8%
Courtney Koos 7.7% 9.8% 9.7% 9.7% 10.8% 8.8% 7.8% 8.3% 9.3% 7.5% 4.5% 3.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Kyle Thomas 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 1.9% 2.5% 1.4% 3.2% 3.5% 8.1% 16.6% 59.0%
Drake Lyon 10.9% 12.3% 12.0% 10.0% 10.8% 9.5% 9.4% 7.7% 6.8% 4.7% 3.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Amy Macdonald 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 2.2% 3.6% 2.8% 3.6% 5.2% 9.5% 14.1% 28.3% 21.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.