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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+3.41vs Predicted
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2Hampton University2.26+6.71vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.06+3.12vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50+4.16vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia2.39+3.42vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.29-0.53vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.45+1.25vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.73-0.92vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.28-0.30vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.76-2.85vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.36+0.59vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.50-7.18vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.32-4.40vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.10+0.68vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.83-2.88vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia1.70-6.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.2%1st Place
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8.71Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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6.12Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.0%1st Place
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8.42University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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5.47Georgetown University3.290.1%1st Place
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8.25Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.08Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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8.7George Washington University2.280.0%1st Place
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7.15U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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11.59Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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4.82Old Dominion University3.500.2%1st Place
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8.6George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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14.68William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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13.12Christopher Newport University0.830.0%1st Place
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10.72University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Quinn | 18.2% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Roger Dorr | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Marissa Golison | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Craven | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| AJ Reiter | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Colin Kennedy | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Jimmy Madigan | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Samara Leith | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 18.7% | 19.1% | 7.9% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 15.4% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 4.7% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 17.0% | 60.0% |
| Hannah Cantolino | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 28.4% | 23.1% |
| Rodman Brown | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 11.9% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.