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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.29+4.30vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.06+4.09vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia2.39+5.35vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.73+3.36vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.32+3.59vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.26+2.84vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.45+1.25vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50-0.11vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.28-0.33vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60-5.48vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.76-3.89vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.50-7.15vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia1.70-2.38vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.36-2.37vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.83-2.86vs Predicted
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17William and Mary-0.10-2.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.3Georgetown University3.290.1%1st Place
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6.09Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.35University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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7.36Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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8.59George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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8.84Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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8.25Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.89St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.1%1st Place
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8.67George Washington University2.280.0%1st Place
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4.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.2%1st Place
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7.11U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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4.85Old Dominion University3.500.2%1st Place
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10.62University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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11.63Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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13.14Christopher Newport University0.830.0%1st Place
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14.79William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Reiter | 11.7% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Wade Wagner | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 0.5% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 0.9% |
| Eric Siegel | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Marissa Golison | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Colin Kennedy | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Chase Quinn | 15.2% | 13.2% | 15.4% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jimmy Madigan | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 16.2% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rodman Brown | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 3.7% |
| Samara Leith | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 8.7% |
| Hannah Cantolino | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 29.2% | 21.0% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 16.0% | 62.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.