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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.50+3.69vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.45+6.09vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+1.50vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.76+3.25vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia2.39+3.43vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.06+0.24vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.32+1.68vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50-0.14vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.28-0.32vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.73-2.74vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia1.70-0.35vs Predicted
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12Hampton University2.26-3.22vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.10+1.74vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.83-1.06vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.36-3.24vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University3.29-11.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.69Old Dominion University3.500.2%1st Place
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8.09Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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4.5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.2%1st Place
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7.25U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.43University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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6.24Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.68George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.86St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.0%1st Place
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8.68George Washington University2.280.0%1st Place
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7.26Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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10.65University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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8.78Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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14.74William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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12.94Christopher Newport University0.830.0%1st Place
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11.76Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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5.46Georgetown University3.290.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Herrin | 15.8% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Chase Quinn | 17.2% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jimmy Madigan | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Craven | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Roger Dorr | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Wade Wagner | 5.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Marissa Golison | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Colin Kennedy | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Rodman Brown | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 4.1% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 15.3% | 62.1% |
| Hannah Cantolino | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 27.5% | 19.4% |
| Samara Leith | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 16.9% | 19.3% | 8.7% |
| AJ Reiter | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.