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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.29+4.33vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.32+6.50vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.50+1.75vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia2.39+4.55vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50+3.00vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.28+2.83vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.73+0.34vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60-3.57vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.06-2.90vs Predicted
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10Hampton University2.26-1.09vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.45-2.90vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia1.70-1.38vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.76-5.93vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.83-1.09vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.36-3.22vs Predicted
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16William and Mary-0.10-1.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.33Georgetown University3.290.1%1st Place
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8.5George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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4.75Old Dominion University3.500.2%1st Place
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8.55University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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8.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.0%1st Place
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8.83George Washington University2.280.0%1st Place
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7.34Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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4.43St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.2%1st Place
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6.1Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.91Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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8.1Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.62University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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12.91Christopher Newport University0.830.0%1st Place
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11.78Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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14.79William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Reiter | 12.0% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 15.7% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| Marissa Golison | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Colin Kennedy | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Chase Quinn | 17.4% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Rodman Brown | 2.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 4.7% |
| Jimmy Madigan | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Cantolino | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 27.7% | 18.7% |
| Samara Leith | 2.2% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 18.4% | 17.3% | 9.3% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 17.1% | 62.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.