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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.06+4.93vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+2.41vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.29+2.35vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.73+3.24vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.50-0.28vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.76+1.09vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.01+2.63vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia1.70+2.43vs Predicted
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9Hampton University2.26-0.39vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.50-2.10vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.32-2.61vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia2.39-3.71vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.28-4.39vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.10+0.68vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.36-3.30vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.83-2.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.93Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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4.41St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.2%1st Place
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5.35Georgetown University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.24Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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4.72Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.09U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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9.63Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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10.43University of Virginia1.700.0%1st Place
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8.61Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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7.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.500.1%1st Place
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8.39George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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8.29University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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8.61George Washington University2.280.0%1st Place
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14.68William and Mary-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.7Christopher Newport University1.360.0%1st Place
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13.04Christopher Newport University0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Dorr | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Chase Quinn | 18.3% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AJ Reiter | 12.5% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 13.8% | 15.3% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jimmy Madigan | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 1.4% |
| Rodman Brown | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 4.4% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Marissa Golison | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Wade Wagner | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Craven | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Colin Kennedy | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Patrick Firth | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 15.0% | 61.4% |
| Samara Leith | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 18.5% | 19.0% | 8.2% |
| Hannah Cantolino | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 14.8% | 28.7% | 20.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.