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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.99vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.24+1.77vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute2.29+3.08vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.53+4.23vs Predicted
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5Drexel University-0.06+7.11vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook2.59-0.60vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.02-2.69vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-4.47vs Predicted
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9Penn State University1.35-0.31vs Predicted
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10Princeton University1.09-0.50vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-2.46vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.25-0.28vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-0.39-0.02vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University-0.09-1.76vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.26-6.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.99University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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3.77Boston College3.240.2%1st Place
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6.08Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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8.23Villanova University1.530.0%1st Place
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12.11Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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5.4SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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4.31U. S. Naval Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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3.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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8.69Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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9.5Princeton University1.090.0%1st Place
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8.54Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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11.72Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
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12.98University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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12.24Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.9Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 17.3% | 17.2% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 18.6% | 16.5% | 17.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Koerwer | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 21.7% | 21.3% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Addison Hackstaff | 13.7% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 21.7% | 18.1% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Robert Whitaker | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 1.6% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 16.6% | 18.0% | 14.4% |
| Evan Shone | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 20.7% | 37.1% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 16.8% | 19.9% | 22.4% |
| Paul Hart | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.