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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.02+3.29vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.24+1.79vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute2.29+3.03vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-0.46vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.16-0.87vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.01+0.86vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook2.59-1.67vs Predicted
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8Villanova University1.53+0.07vs Predicted
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9Drexel University-0.06+2.88vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-1.54vs Predicted
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11Penn State University1.35-2.43vs Predicted
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12University of Delaware-0.39+0.64vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.25-1.66vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University-0.09-2.08vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.81-1.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.29U. S. Naval Academy3.020.2%1st Place
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3.79Boston College3.240.2%1st Place
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6.03Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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3.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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4.13University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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6.86Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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5.33SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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8.07Villanova University1.530.0%1st Place
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11.88Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.46Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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8.57Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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12.64University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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11.34Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
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11.92Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.14Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison Hackstaff | 15.1% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 17.9% | 18.7% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 21.0% | 18.3% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 14.8% | 15.3% | 16.0% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 9.3% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Koerwer | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 16.5% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 18.3% | 19.2% | 11.9% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 15.8% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| John Shanahan | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Evan Shone | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 18.8% | 22.2% | 23.6% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 14.6% | 17.4% | 17.0% | 14.2% | 8.7% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 17.9% | 18.4% | 14.7% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 20.7% | 39.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.