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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+3.02vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+1.48vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute2.29+3.01vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.24-0.13vs Predicted
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5SUNY Stony Brook2.59+0.44vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.02-1.66vs Predicted
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7Penn State University1.35+1.52vs Predicted
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8Drexel University-0.06+3.85vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.01-2.18vs Predicted
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10Villanova University1.53-1.82vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-2.54vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University-0.09+0.05vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-0.39-0.35vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.25-2.82vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.81-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.02University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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3.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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6.01Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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3.87Boston College3.240.2%1st Place
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5.44SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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4.34U. S. Naval Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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8.52Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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11.85Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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6.82Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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8.18Villanova University1.530.0%1st Place
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8.46Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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12.05Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.65University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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11.18Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
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13.13Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 16.1% | 17.2% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 20.0% | 22.0% | 15.8% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 7.1% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 19.2% | 14.5% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Addison Hackstaff | 11.9% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 17.5% | 19.0% | 12.8% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Koerwer | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 22.0% | 17.6% | 14.5% |
| Evan Shone | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 23.4% | 25.4% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 17.5% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 7.3% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 21.0% | 38.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.