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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.02+3.31vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+1.55vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.16+1.04vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.24-0.03vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.01+1.95vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook2.59-0.53vs Predicted
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7Drexel University-0.06+5.12vs Predicted
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8Penn State University1.35+0.47vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute2.29-2.83vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-1.44vs Predicted
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11Villanova University1.53-2.90vs Predicted
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12University of Delaware-0.39+0.78vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University-0.09-0.87vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.25-2.70vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-1.25-0.60vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.81-2.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.31U. S. Naval Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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3.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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4.04University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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3.97Boston College3.240.2%1st Place
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6.95Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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5.47SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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12.12Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.47Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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6.17Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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8.56Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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8.1Villanova University1.530.0%1st Place
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12.78University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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12.13Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.3Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
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14.4Rutgers University-1.250.0%1st Place
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13.68Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison Hackstaff | 14.4% | 14.3% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 21.9% | 18.4% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 16.5% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 16.2% | 16.7% | 13.5% | 16.8% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 8.2% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 19.2% | 13.9% | 7.0% |
| John Shanahan | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Koerwer | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Evan Shone | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 17.6% | 19.0% | 13.2% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 16.1% | 18.1% | 11.8% | 7.3% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 15.0% | 18.7% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 2.8% |
| Taylor Niles | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 20.7% | 46.0% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 16.7% | 25.6% | 23.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.