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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.02+3.30vs Predicted
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2SUNY Stony Brook2.59+3.32vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.24+0.87vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute2.29+2.27vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology1.40+3.54vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-2.41vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.16-2.91vs Predicted
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8Penn State University1.35+0.53vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.53-0.91vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.01-3.06vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-0.06+1.01vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.25-0.60vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-0.39-0.17vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-1.25+0.33vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University-0.09-2.78vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.81-2.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3U. S. Naval Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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5.32SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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3.87Boston College3.240.2%1st Place
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6.27Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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8.54Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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3.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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4.09University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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8.53Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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8.09Villanova University1.530.0%1st Place
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6.94Washington College2.010.1%1st Place
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12.01Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.4Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
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12.83University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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14.33Rutgers University-1.250.0%1st Place
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12.22Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.67Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison Hackstaff | 14.4% | 14.5% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 17.3% | 16.3% | 15.7% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 20.2% | 18.5% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 17.0% | 14.7% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Koerwer | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 17.1% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 7.3% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 4.6% |
| Evan Shone | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 17.8% | 17.3% | 13.5% |
| Taylor Niles | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 20.2% | 41.8% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 17.5% | 18.8% | 12.9% | 7.7% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 17.4% | 23.4% | 24.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.