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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.02+3.31vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+1.47vs Predicted
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3Penn State University1.35+5.41vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.01+2.86vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute2.29+1.19vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook2.59-0.66vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.16-3.03vs Predicted
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8Drexel University-0.06+3.88vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-0.61vs Predicted
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10Villanova University1.53-1.79vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-0.39+1.51vs Predicted
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12Boston College3.24-7.96vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University-0.09-0.94vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.81-0.81vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College0.25-3.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.31U. S. Naval Academy3.020.2%1st Place
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3.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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8.41Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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6.86Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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6.19Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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5.34SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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3.97University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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11.88Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.39Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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8.21Villanova University1.530.0%1st Place
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12.51University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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4.04Boston College3.240.2%1st Place
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12.06Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.19Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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11.17Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison Hackstaff | 15.3% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 21.7% | 19.1% | 17.4% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 7.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 16.5% | 16.3% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 19.0% | 18.8% | 14.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Trevor Koerwer | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Evan Shone | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 17.6% | 21.1% | 24.2% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 16.8% | 15.0% | 15.8% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 19.7% | 19.3% | 15.4% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 21.2% | 38.1% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 15.8% | 15.9% | 7.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.