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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+2.51vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.16+1.91vs Predicted
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3Penn State University1.35+5.50vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.01+2.83vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.24-1.04vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute2.29+0.17vs Predicted
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7Monmouth University-0.09+4.81vs Predicted
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8Villanova University1.53+0.12vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook2.59-3.68vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-1.49vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-0.06+0.84vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.02-7.49vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.81+0.37vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-0.39-1.53vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College0.25-3.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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3.91University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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8.5Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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6.83Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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3.96Boston College3.240.2%1st Place
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6.17Webb Institute2.290.0%1st Place
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11.81Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.12Villanova University1.530.0%1st Place
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5.32SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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8.51Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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11.84Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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4.51U. S. Naval Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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13.37Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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12.47University of Delaware-0.390.0%1st Place
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11.18Ocean County College0.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lomax | 22.5% | 18.1% | 17.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 17.7% | 16.6% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 17.2% | 16.5% | 13.8% | 15.5% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 4.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 17.0% | 18.3% | 18.9% | 13.4% |
| Trevor Koerwer | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 17.4% | 18.9% | 14.3% |
| Addison Hackstaff | 13.5% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 20.2% | 43.1% |
| Evan Shone | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 13.7% | 16.9% | 23.7% | 20.7% |
| Mitchell Nunn | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 19.9% | 12.9% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.