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📊 Prediction Accuracy
68.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.22+2.09vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+1.88vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.93vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-0.78vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology1.76+1.35vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.56+0.91vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.64vs Predicted
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8Villanova University1.37-0.76vs Predicted
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9University of Delaware-0.95+4.32vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.28+0.36vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University0.85-2.33vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.18-1.39vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-0.78+0.01vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.81-0.97vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.35-2.90vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-0.19-4.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.09U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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3.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.2%1st Place
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3.93University of Pennsylvania2.800.2%1st Place
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3.22St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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6.35Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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6.91Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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8.64SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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7.24Villanova University1.370.0%1st Place
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13.32University of Delaware-0.950.0%1st Place
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10.36Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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8.67Monmouth University0.850.0%1st Place
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10.61Washington College0.180.0%1st Place
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13.01Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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13.03Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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12.1Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.63Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Hogan | 23.7% | 21.5% | 19.1% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 17.1% | 16.2% | 15.4% | 14.9% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 15.6% | 14.6% | 16.2% | 15.2% | 14.6% | 11.5% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 22.7% | 20.0% | 17.3% | 16.6% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Bailey Cornog | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Martha Diezemann | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 21.5% | 27.7% |
| John Kirk | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Sydney Seitz | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Mason Sheen | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 17.8% | 23.4% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 17.9% | 22.8% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 10.6% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 7.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.