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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.22+2.07vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.80+1.94vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+0.89vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.37+3.42vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.18+5.62vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-2.76vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.56-0.09vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook0.90+0.54vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-2.72vs Predicted
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10Drexel University-0.19+1.60vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University0.85-2.29vs Predicted
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12University of Delaware-0.95+1.36vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.28-2.75vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-0.78-1.07vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.35-2.92vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.81-2.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.07U. S. Naval Academy3.220.3%1st Place
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3.94University of Pennsylvania2.800.2%1st Place
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3.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.2%1st Place
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7.42Villanova University1.370.0%1st Place
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10.62Washington College0.180.0%1st Place
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3.24St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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6.91Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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8.54SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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6.28Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.1%1st Place
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11.6Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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8.71Monmouth University0.850.0%1st Place
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13.36University of Delaware-0.950.0%1st Place
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10.25Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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12.93Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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12.08Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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13.17Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Hogan | 25.4% | 20.6% | 16.2% | 16.0% | 11.0% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 15.6% | 15.9% | 16.8% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 15.2% | 15.5% | 17.1% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Cornog | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Mason Sheen | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% |
| Patrick Tara | 21.4% | 21.6% | 17.6% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Roleke | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 7.9% |
| Sydney Seitz | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Martha Diezemann | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 16.8% | 30.4% |
| John Kirk | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 17.8% | 21.9% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 17.3% | 9.2% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 18.9% | 24.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.