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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+2.17vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.80+2.10vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.56+4.04vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+0.12vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.22-1.68vs Predicted
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6University of Delaware-0.16+5.80vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-0.42vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook0.90+0.79vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.18+1.82vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.28+0.58vs Predicted
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11Villanova University2.04-5.17vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University0.85-2.94vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.81+0.30vs Predicted
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14Drexel University-0.19-2.20vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.35-2.62vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-0.78-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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4.1University of Pennsylvania2.800.2%1st Place
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7.04Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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4.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.1%1st Place
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3.32U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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11.8University of Delaware-0.160.0%1st Place
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6.58Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.1%1st Place
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8.79SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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10.82Washington College0.180.0%1st Place
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10.58Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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5.83Villanova University2.040.1%1st Place
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9.06Monmouth University0.850.0%1st Place
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13.3Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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11.8Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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12.38Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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13.35Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 22.5% | 21.8% | 18.2% | 14.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 17.0% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Max Neubelt | 13.5% | 15.7% | 14.0% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 22.5% | 18.8% | 17.5% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Berke | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 10.2% |
| Matthew Roleke | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Mason Sheen | 0.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| John Kirk | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% |
| Peter McMillan | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Seitz | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 19.5% | 28.3% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 9.6% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 17.2% | 13.8% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 20.0% | 27.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.