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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.80+2.90vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+1.91vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+0.18vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.22-0.78vs Predicted
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5Villanova University1.37+2.48vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.56+0.98vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.81vs Predicted
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8Drexel University-0.19+3.62vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.76-2.63vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.28+0.52vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.18-0.24vs Predicted
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12Penn State University-0.78+1.21vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-0.16-1.34vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University0.85-5.26vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.35-2.70vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.81-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.9University of Pennsylvania2.800.2%1st Place
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3.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.2%1st Place
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3.18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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3.22U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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7.48Villanova University1.370.0%1st Place
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6.98Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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8.81SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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11.62Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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6.37Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.1%1st Place
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10.52Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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10.76Washington College0.180.0%1st Place
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13.21Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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11.66University of Delaware-0.160.0%1st Place
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8.74Monmouth University0.850.0%1st Place
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12.3Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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13.34Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Floyd | 16.1% | 14.7% | 16.4% | 16.6% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 15.7% | 17.3% | 15.1% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 23.4% | 20.6% | 18.2% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 22.3% | 21.2% | 16.7% | 14.8% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Cornog | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Casey Brown | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 10.2% |
| Matthew Roleke | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| John Kirk | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| Mason Sheen | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 4.9% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 17.8% | 28.9% |
| Ian Berke | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 9.3% |
| Sydney Seitz | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 19.2% | 12.7% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 19.2% | 29.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.