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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+2.12vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.22+1.15vs Predicted
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3Villanova University1.37+4.40vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.03vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology1.76+1.37vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook0.90+2.81vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-3.01vs Predicted
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8Monmouth University0.85+0.82vs Predicted
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9University of Delaware-0.16+2.64vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.56-3.05vs Predicted
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11Penn State University-0.78+2.14vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.18-1.16vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.28-2.55vs Predicted
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14Drexel University-0.19-2.30vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.81-1.65vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-0.35-3.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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3.15U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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7.4Villanova University1.370.0%1st Place
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4.03University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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6.37Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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8.81SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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3.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.2%1st Place
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8.82Monmouth University0.850.0%1st Place
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11.64University of Delaware-0.160.0%1st Place
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6.95Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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13.14Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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10.84Washington College0.180.0%1st Place
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10.45Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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11.7Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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13.35Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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12.25Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 24.1% | 20.7% | 19.1% | 14.1% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 24.0% | 20.3% | 19.1% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Cornog | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 14.2% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Max Neubelt | 16.0% | 14.8% | 15.2% | 15.5% | 13.8% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Seitz | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Ian Berke | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 9.7% |
| Casey Brown | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 19.0% | 27.9% |
| Mason Sheen | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% |
| John Kirk | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 10.4% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 18.8% | 29.3% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 17.3% | 12.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.