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📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.80+2.67vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+1.72vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.22+0.03vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.37+3.02vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-1.92vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+1.55vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.56-0.54vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.18+1.98vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook0.90-0.94vs Predicted
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10Drexel University-0.19+1.07vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-0.30+0.28vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-0.35-0.51vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-0.78-0.53vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.28-4.32vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University-0.72-2.62vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-2.27-0.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.67University of Pennsylvania2.800.2%1st Place
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3.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.2%1st Place
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3.03U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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7.02Villanova University1.370.0%1st Place
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3.08St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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7.55Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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6.46Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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9.98Washington College0.180.0%1st Place
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8.06SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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11.07Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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11.49Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.47Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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9.68Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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12.38Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
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15.07Princeton University-2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Floyd | 16.9% | 15.9% | 18.6% | 16.0% | 13.7% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 16.9% | 16.7% | 17.2% | 15.3% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 24.7% | 20.3% | 19.4% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Cornog | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 22.2% | 23.2% | 17.7% | 16.1% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Sheen | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 9.0% | 2.8% |
| Sean Crandall | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 3.8% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 4.5% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 22.4% | 9.0% |
| John Kirk | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Amanda Nuse | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 17.3% | 20.9% | 8.4% |
| Malcolm Steinberg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 6.4% | 11.8% | 69.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.