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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+2.68vs Predicted
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2Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+5.46vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.75vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-0.93vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.56+1.48vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.22-2.98vs Predicted
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7Villanova University1.37-0.05vs Predicted
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8University of Delaware-0.16+2.96vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.18+1.04vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook0.90-1.78vs Predicted
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11Penn State University-0.78+1.41vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University-0.72+0.43vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-0.35-1.52vs Predicted
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14Drexel University-0.19-3.02vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College0.28-5.05vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-2.27-0.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.2%1st Place
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7.46Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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3.75University of Pennsylvania2.800.2%1st Place
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3.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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6.48Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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3.02U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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6.95Villanova University1.370.0%1st Place
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10.96University of Delaware-0.160.0%1st Place
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10.04Washington College0.180.0%1st Place
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8.22SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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12.41Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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12.43Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
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11.48Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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10.98Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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9.95Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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15.14Princeton University-2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Neubelt | 16.5% | 17.6% | 16.2% | 17.9% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 16.6% | 15.0% | 17.2% | 16.5% | 15.1% | 10.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 23.1% | 22.0% | 18.7% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 16.3% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 24.2% | 21.7% | 18.7% | 15.2% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Cornog | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Berke | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 1.8% |
| Mason Sheen | 1.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 17.1% | 22.9% | 9.0% |
| Amanda Nuse | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 15.7% | 22.1% | 10.0% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 12.2% | 4.0% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 1.9% |
| John Kirk | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Malcolm Steinberg | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 71.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.