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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+2.67vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+1.04vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.22+0.01vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.80-0.21vs Predicted
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5Monmouth University-0.72+7.41vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+1.58vs Predicted
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7Villanova University1.37-0.05vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.56-1.63vs Predicted
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9Rutgers University-0.35+2.40vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.28-0.13vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.18-0.92vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook0.90-3.83vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-0.78-0.51vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-0.16-3.05vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-0.19-3.89vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-2.27-0.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.2%1st Place
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3.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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3.01U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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3.79University of Pennsylvania2.800.2%1st Place
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12.41Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
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7.58Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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6.95Villanova University1.370.0%1st Place
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6.37Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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11.4Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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9.87Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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10.08Washington College0.180.0%1st Place
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8.17SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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12.49Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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10.95University of Delaware-0.160.0%1st Place
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11.11Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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15.1Princeton University-2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Neubelt | 16.4% | 16.9% | 17.9% | 16.4% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 24.8% | 22.2% | 16.9% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 24.8% | 21.0% | 18.8% | 14.8% | 11.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 16.0% | 15.1% | 16.2% | 17.6% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Nuse | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 15.9% | 23.2% | 8.4% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Cornog | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 3.7% |
| John Kirk | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Mason Sheen | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 1.3% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 16.7% | 20.8% | 10.2% |
| Ian Berke | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 2.4% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 10.1% | 2.8% |
| Malcolm Steinberg | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 11.5% | 70.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.