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📊 Prediction Accuracy
68.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.22+2.03vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.56+4.58vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.89vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-0.08vs Predicted
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5Villanova University2.04+0.53vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-2.85vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.31vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-0.44vs Predicted
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9Drexel University-0.19+2.03vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.18+0.21vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College0.28-1.12vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University-0.72+0.40vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-0.30-1.64vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-0.78-1.52vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-2.27+0.05vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-0.35-4.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.03U. S. Naval Academy3.220.3%1st Place
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6.58Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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3.89University of Pennsylvania2.800.2%1st Place
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3.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.2%1st Place
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5.53Villanova University2.040.1%1st Place
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3.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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8.31SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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7.56Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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11.03Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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10.21Washington College0.180.0%1st Place
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9.88Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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12.4Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
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11.36University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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12.48Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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15.05Princeton University-2.270.0%1st Place
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11.61Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Hogan | 25.3% | 21.3% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 15.4% | 15.6% | 16.3% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 15.2% | 15.6% | 14.7% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McMillan | 6.9% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 22.7% | 21.1% | 18.5% | 15.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 8.7% | 2.7% |
| Mason Sheen | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 0.7% |
| John Kirk | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
| Amanda Nuse | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 17.4% | 21.0% | 8.9% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 4.1% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 21.4% | 9.3% |
| Malcolm Steinberg | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 13.5% | 69.1% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.