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📊 Prediction Accuracy
68.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+2.80vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.80+1.82vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+0.12vs Predicted
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4Ocean County College0.28+6.01vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.22-1.84vs Predicted
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6Villanova University2.04-0.46vs Predicted
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7Rutgers University-0.35+4.54vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.56-1.43vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-1.41vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook0.90-1.66vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.18-0.87vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University-0.72+0.35vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-0.19-1.90vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-0.30-2.72vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-2.27+0.02vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-0.78-3.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.2%1st Place
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3.82University of Pennsylvania2.800.2%1st Place
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3.12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.2%1st Place
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10.01Ocean County College0.280.0%1st Place
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3.16U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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5.54Villanova University2.040.1%1st Place
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11.54Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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6.57Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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7.59Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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8.34SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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10.13Washington College0.180.0%1st Place
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12.35Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
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11.1Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Delaware-0.300.0%1st Place
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15.02Princeton University-2.270.0%1st Place
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12.64Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Neubelt | 16.3% | 16.2% | 16.7% | 16.3% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 16.5% | 16.0% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 24.7% | 18.7% | 18.3% | 15.8% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kirk | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 0.4% |
| Peter Hogan | 22.0% | 23.4% | 16.3% | 14.3% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McMillan | 5.8% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 14.0% | 15.9% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 16.9% | 12.2% | 3.9% |
| Casey Brown | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mason Sheen | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| Amanda Nuse | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 21.5% | 8.7% |
| Barrett Adams | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 3.2% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 10.5% | 3.4% |
| Malcolm Steinberg | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 12.9% | 68.6% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 14.0% | 16.5% | 21.3% | 10.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.