← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Harvard University3.60+6.62vs Predicted
-
2Roger Williams University2.98+8.24vs Predicted
-
3Boston University3.13+6.53vs Predicted
-
4Stanford University2.93+6.03vs Predicted
-
5Brown University3.27+3.65vs Predicted
-
6Yale University3.72+0.85vs Predicted
-
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+0.24vs Predicted
-
8Bowdoin College2.92+2.12vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College3.21-0.16vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont2.99+0.16vs Predicted
-
11George Washington University3.41-2.74vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-3.71vs Predicted
-
13Boston College3.73-6.33vs Predicted
-
14Tufts University3.04-4.57vs Predicted
-
15University of Rhode Island1.83-0.71vs Predicted
-
16Northeastern University2.60-4.36vs Predicted
-
17Salve Regina University2.08-3.37vs Predicted
-
18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-8.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.62Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
-
10.24Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
-
9.53Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
-
10.03Stanford University2.930.0%1st Place
-
8.65Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
-
6.85Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
-
7.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
-
10.12Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
-
8.84Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
-
10.16University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
-
8.26George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
-
8.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
-
6.67Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
-
9.43Tufts University3.040.0%1st Place
-
14.29University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
-
11.64Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
-
13.63Salve Regina University2.080.0%1st Place
-
9.51St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sertl | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Stewart Draheim | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% |
| Brendan Cook | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% |
| Nathan Allman | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Joseph Kiss | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Stewart | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| William Hawk | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Megan Yeigh | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 3.3% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Dana Rohde | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Charles Sinks | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gowrie | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% |
| Peter Girard | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 33.1% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 12.6% | 9.8% |
| Shannon Killian | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 16.8% | 25.1% |
| Carolyn Smith | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.