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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.92+9.33vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.21+7.15vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+4.47vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.73+2.73vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.41+3.05vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.98+3.95vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.93+3.16vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.72-1.17vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.99+0.89vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.13-0.43vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University2.08+2.57vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.60-4.28vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.04-3.46vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.27-5.55vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.83-0.71vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-7.96vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University2.60-5.24vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-8.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.33Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
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9.15Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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7.47Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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6.73Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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8.05George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.95Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
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10.16Stanford University2.930.0%1st Place
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6.83Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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9.89University of Vermont2.990.0%1st Place
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9.57Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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13.57Salve Regina University2.080.0%1st Place
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7.72Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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9.54Tufts University3.040.1%1st Place
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8.45Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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14.29University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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8.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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11.76Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
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9.49St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hawk | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Alexander Stewart | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Charles Sinks | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Stewart Draheim | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.1% |
| Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% |
| Joseph Kiss | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Megan Yeigh | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| Brendan Cook | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Shannon Killian | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 25.4% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Casey Gowrie | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Peter Girard | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 33.9% |
| Dana Rohde | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 3.2% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 10.1% |
| Carolyn Smith | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.