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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+6.51vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.72+4.99vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.92+7.47vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.27+4.61vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.98+4.86vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.83+8.33vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.04+2.68vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.73-1.26vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University2.08+4.53vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College3.21-0.75vs Predicted
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11George Washington University3.41-2.76vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-3.60vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.13-3.81vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.60-2.83vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.99-5.11vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-6.32vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.60-9.51vs Predicted
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18Stanford University2.93-8.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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6.99Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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10.47Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
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8.61Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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9.86Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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14.33University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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9.68Tufts University3.040.0%1st Place
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6.74Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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13.53Salve Regina University2.080.0%1st Place
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9.25Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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8.24George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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9.19Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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11.17Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
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9.89University of Vermont2.990.0%1st Place
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9.68St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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7.49Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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9.98Stanford University2.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Stewart | 6.9% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Joseph Kiss | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| William Hawk | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Stewart Draheim | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% |
| Peter Girard | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 33.3% |
| Casey Gowrie | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% |
| Charles Sinks | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Shannon Killian | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 15.5% | 23.3% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Dana Rohde | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Brendan Cook | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.2% |
| Megan Yeigh | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Carolyn Smith | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| Nick Sertl | 10.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.