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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College3.79+3.06vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.80+4.91vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.39+2.16vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.81+3.00vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.24+0.77vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97+0.55vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.97-0.53vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.54-0.02vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-0.14vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.58-2.11vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.66-0.21vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College1.52-0.60vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University2.63-5.06vs Predicted
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14Bates College1.80-3.67vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire0.78-3.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.06Boston College3.790.2%1st Place
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6.91Bowdoin College2.800.1%1st Place
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5.16Dartmouth College3.390.1%1st Place
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7.0Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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5.77Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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6.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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6.47Roger Williams University2.970.1%1st Place
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7.98Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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8.86Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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7.89University of Vermont2.580.1%1st Place
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10.79Northeastern University1.660.0%1st Place
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11.4Middlebury College1.520.0%1st Place
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7.94Salve Regina University2.630.1%1st Place
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10.33Bates College1.800.0%1st Place
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12.88University of New Hampshire0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Jones | 19.5% | 19.0% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Lyons | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Hunter Johnstone | 13.4% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Welsh | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Cameron Holley | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| August Sturm | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Kendal Richardson | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Connor Kelter | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| Frank Reeg | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 3.0% |
| Adam Ceely | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Kurran Singh | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 16.3% | 15.3% |
| Ben Brown | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 19.4% | 17.7% |
| Sam Shannon | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| John Cappetta | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 15.9% | 9.9% |
| Emmet Todd | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 17.8% | 46.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.