Race 1B

lake-champlain-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Wade Waddell 17.6% 16.2% 15.0% 12.0% 10.6% 6.9% 7.7% 4.5% 4.8% 2.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Matthew Kaplan 21.7% 18.1% 13.7% 12.6% 9.4% 8.3% 6.1% 4.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathaniel Johansson 9.5% 10.6% 10.4% 10.9% 9.3% 9.3% 10.5% 10.2% 6.9% 5.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
MaryClaire Kiernan 9.9% 11.3% 10.0% 9.4% 10.7% 10.4% 8.7% 8.8% 7.5% 5.3% 4.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
A. Tucker Atterbury 7.8% 7.6% 9.2% 8.5% 9.1% 11.0% 8.7% 8.7% 8.3% 6.8% 5.9% 4.4% 2.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Jeffrey Adam 3.1% 3.5% 4.4% 4.7% 7.1% 7.3% 8.2% 7.8% 7.5% 10.8% 6.9% 9.3% 8.3% 7.1% 3.5% 0.5%
Solomon Tarlin 4.9% 4.5% 5.1% 4.8% 6.5% 5.5% 7.4% 8.1% 8.3% 9.3% 9.6% 9.9% 7.6% 5.2% 2.9% 0.4%
Peter Christensen 4.6% 5.5% 7.1% 5.7% 7.7% 8.1% 8.2% 7.5% 9.8% 8.7% 10.8% 6.3% 5.1% 3.0% 1.6% 0.3%
Bayard Lalor 1.6% 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 3.2% 3.7% 5.5% 6.1% 7.0% 9.5% 12.0% 14.6% 10.0% 10.1% 5.5%
Amy Macdonald 1.0% 0.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 2.3% 3.4% 4.5% 6.4% 8.8% 15.9% 24.0% 23.4%
Liam Ballantyne 4.5% 4.2% 3.6% 5.8% 5.1% 6.3% 5.6% 7.8% 7.4% 10.1% 10.8% 10.3% 8.1% 5.8% 3.8% 0.8%
Hannah Ker 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.4% 3.6% 4.2% 6.1% 7.0% 10.6% 16.1% 19.3% 20.4%
Daniel Birmingham 2.4% 3.2% 3.6% 6.7% 3.8% 6.2% 6.0% 7.4% 8.3% 9.3% 10.5% 8.4% 9.7% 8.8% 5.0% 0.7%
Ryan Gershuny 1.8% 2.7% 1.9% 2.2% 3.8% 3.1% 5.0% 5.8% 6.7% 6.9% 8.4% 12.3% 13.2% 13.4% 8.6% 4.2%
Zachary Berzolla 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.8% 4.3% 7.1% 11.7% 20.4% 43.4%
Jan Kite-Powell 8.5% 7.1% 9.4% 10.7% 10.4% 9.9% 9.5% 8.1% 8.3% 6.6% 4.5% 3.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.