Race 2B

lake-champlain-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Matthew Kaplan 22.0% 18.2% 16.8% 12.4% 8.7% 7.7% 4.3% 4.8% 1.9% 2.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wade Waddell 17.1% 15.5% 14.5% 11.6% 10.8% 8.0% 7.0% 5.7% 4.4% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathaniel Johansson 10.2% 10.3% 9.8% 10.4% 9.6% 10.7% 11.0% 8.8% 7.0% 4.2% 4.3% 1.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
A. Tucker Atterbury 6.1% 8.9% 8.8% 9.3% 9.6% 9.9% 8.3% 8.9% 9.0% 6.8% 6.2% 4.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
MaryClaire Kiernan 10.3% 9.7% 13.3% 9.6% 11.6% 9.5% 8.5% 8.3% 6.6% 4.6% 4.6% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Christensen 4.7% 3.8% 6.4% 6.9% 8.6% 6.6% 10.1% 6.6% 9.1% 9.2% 7.0% 8.2% 5.3% 5.3% 1.9% 0.3%
Jan Kite-Powell 8.8% 9.4% 6.9% 10.2% 9.5% 10.0% 8.6% 9.9% 8.0% 6.5% 5.3% 3.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Jeffrey Adam 3.7% 4.7% 4.3% 4.9% 6.5% 7.1% 7.0% 6.9% 8.3% 9.6% 10.9% 9.7% 8.2% 4.7% 3.0% 0.5%
Liam Ballantyne 3.6% 4.6% 3.8% 4.6% 5.3% 6.4% 7.7% 8.5% 8.6% 10.2% 10.0% 8.4% 8.8% 4.9% 3.3% 1.3%
Amy Macdonald 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% 1.8% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 4.8% 7.0% 9.0% 16.4% 21.7% 24.5%
Solomon Tarlin 4.4% 4.8% 5.0% 6.6% 6.1% 5.2% 6.2% 8.8% 9.1% 9.0% 11.0% 9.7% 6.5% 4.5% 2.6% 0.5%
Ryan Gershuny 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 3.5% 4.2% 4.9% 4.5% 6.1% 8.3% 8.0% 10.5% 11.8% 13.4% 10.7% 5.2%
Hannah Ker 0.8% 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 2.4% 3.0% 4.0% 3.9% 5.4% 7.6% 11.6% 15.6% 21.5% 17.9%
Daniel Birmingham 3.3% 3.1% 3.5% 5.3% 3.9% 6.7% 7.5% 5.7% 8.0% 10.3% 10.1% 11.3% 9.3% 6.4% 4.3% 1.3%
Bayard Lalor 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 2.7% 2.8% 3.7% 3.5% 6.0% 5.6% 7.5% 7.3% 11.5% 14.1% 14.8% 9.9% 4.8%
Zachary Berzolla 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.8% 7.5% 10.5% 20.6% 43.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.