Race 4B

lake-champlain-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Matthew Kaplan 21.5% 18.0% 16.1% 12.8% 10.1% 6.7% 5.8% 4.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wade Waddell 17.1% 16.4% 13.6% 11.7% 10.6% 7.9% 7.4% 5.9% 4.3% 2.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
A. Tucker Atterbury 7.0% 8.9% 7.6% 10.3% 9.4% 10.3% 9.1% 9.3% 8.3% 7.9% 5.1% 3.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Solomon Tarlin 3.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 6.5% 6.7% 7.2% 7.5% 8.9% 8.9% 9.6% 10.0% 7.5% 5.8% 2.4% 0.3%
Daniel Birmingham 2.9% 2.7% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5% 6.3% 5.5% 7.9% 7.0% 9.4% 10.6% 8.8% 11.7% 9.0% 3.9% 1.0%
Nathaniel Johansson 9.7% 10.0% 10.6% 10.6% 10.7% 10.3% 10.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.0% 3.8% 2.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
MaryClaire Kiernan 11.3% 10.0% 9.2% 11.4% 9.9% 10.5% 10.1% 8.0% 6.3% 5.5% 4.2% 1.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Jeffrey Adam 3.5% 4.6% 5.2% 4.8% 6.1% 7.4% 7.2% 8.0% 8.9% 9.6% 8.9% 9.4% 7.6% 5.2% 3.1% 0.5%
Liam Ballantyne 3.7% 4.0% 4.8% 3.3% 6.0% 7.0% 7.1% 8.3% 9.1% 9.6% 9.6% 9.5% 7.9% 5.8% 2.8% 1.5%
Hannah Ker 1.0% 0.9% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 2.1% 2.6% 4.0% 5.4% 7.5% 9.6% 16.8% 21.8% 19.4%
Peter Christensen 5.0% 5.8% 5.3% 6.9% 6.8% 7.4% 7.4% 9.6% 8.8% 8.1% 10.2% 8.0% 5.4% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3%
Jan Kite-Powell 8.4% 8.7% 11.5% 9.8% 9.9% 7.0% 9.5% 8.0% 7.9% 7.1% 4.8% 3.6% 2.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Zachary Berzolla 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 3.2% 5.2% 7.0% 10.3% 20.1% 43.1%
Bayard Lalor 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.8% 4.6% 5.3% 6.7% 8.0% 9.1% 11.2% 12.6% 12.2% 10.2% 4.4%
Ryan Gershuny 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.5% 3.9% 5.2% 7.0% 7.0% 8.8% 11.8% 13.3% 12.1% 11.5% 4.3%
Amy Macdonald 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 2.9% 3.1% 4.7% 7.1% 9.7% 15.5% 21.2% 25.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.