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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.87+4.52vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.56+1.80vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.35+1.28vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.91+1.57vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.62+1.38vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.86+2.86vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.70-0.79vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.71+1.16vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.16-1.25vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.00-1.53vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.90-2.37vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire1.24-1.29vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.22-2.21vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-0.09-0.07vs Predicted
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15McGill University0.52-2.19vs Predicted
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16Bates College0.37-2.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.52Dartmouth College2.870.1%1st Place
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3.8Bowdoin College3.560.2%1st Place
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4.28Boston College3.350.2%1st Place
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5.57Tufts University2.910.1%1st Place
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6.38Roger Williams University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.860.0%1st Place
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6.21University of Vermont2.700.1%1st Place
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9.16Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
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7.75Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
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8.47Boston University2.000.0%1st Place
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8.63Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.900.0%1st Place
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10.71University of New Hampshire1.240.0%1st Place
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10.79Salve Regina University1.220.0%1st Place
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13.93Middlebury College-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.81McGill University0.520.0%1st Place
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13.15Bates College0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Johansson | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 22.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Waddell | 16.6% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MaryClaire Kiernan | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| A. Tucker Atterbury | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Ballantyne | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 0.9% |
| Peter Christensen | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Solomon Tarlin | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Jeffrey Adam | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Gershuny | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 5.9% |
| Bayard Lalor | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.9% |
| Zachary Berzolla | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 19.0% | 41.1% |
| Hannah Ker | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 22.9% | 19.1% |
| Amy Macdonald | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 23.6% | 23.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.