Race 9B

lake-champlain-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Jan Kite-Powell 8.5% 9.5% 9.7% 10.3% 8.7% 9.8% 9.5% 8.1% 8.2% 7.2% 4.3% 2.4% 2.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Wade Waddell 17.5% 15.9% 14.4% 10.9% 10.6% 9.1% 7.0% 5.4% 4.0% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MaryClaire Kiernan 11.9% 9.1% 9.9% 10.9% 11.5% 10.4% 8.7% 9.4% 6.8% 4.9% 2.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Solomon Tarlin 3.3% 4.4% 4.4% 6.6% 5.6% 7.7% 6.1% 8.3% 9.0% 9.9% 8.5% 8.7% 8.0% 6.6% 2.4% 0.5%
Peter Christensen 4.7% 4.8% 5.7% 6.5% 7.1% 8.0% 8.8% 8.5% 8.9% 8.0% 10.4% 7.9% 5.7% 3.3% 1.4% 0.3%
A. Tucker Atterbury 5.9% 8.4% 11.1% 9.5% 9.2% 8.0% 9.7% 8.9% 7.5% 7.7% 5.2% 3.9% 2.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Matthew Kaplan 20.6% 16.7% 14.7% 11.9% 10.8% 8.6% 6.9% 3.6% 3.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathaniel Johansson 10.2% 11.6% 9.9% 11.3% 11.5% 9.3% 8.8% 7.9% 6.6% 5.4% 3.4% 1.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Liam Ballantyne 3.7% 4.4% 4.8% 5.0% 4.0% 6.4% 7.5% 8.5% 8.9% 9.7% 9.9% 9.3% 7.5% 5.6% 3.8% 1.0%
Daniel Birmingham 3.3% 3.2% 4.4% 3.3% 5.1% 4.9% 5.4% 6.6% 9.2% 9.1% 11.6% 10.4% 11.0% 6.7% 4.8% 1.0%
Jeffrey Adam 4.5% 4.5% 4.1% 6.1% 5.5% 6.1% 5.9% 8.9% 8.0% 8.8% 9.9% 9.5% 9.0% 5.5% 2.8% 0.9%
Bayard Lalor 1.8% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 4.0% 4.3% 5.3% 6.2% 7.5% 7.9% 11.3% 12.0% 12.9% 11.0% 5.5%
Ryan Gershuny 1.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 4.2% 3.6% 5.3% 4.1% 5.9% 7.8% 8.7% 12.6% 12.5% 11.7% 10.3% 4.7%
Amy Macdonald 0.6% 1.3% 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 2.0% 2.9% 2.3% 4.2% 6.2% 7.3% 9.0% 16.5% 19.7% 23.3%
Zachary Berzolla 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 3.7% 4.6% 5.6% 11.4% 20.0% 44.7%
Hannah Ker 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.8% 3.1% 2.3% 3.9% 3.7% 4.8% 7.6% 11.7% 15.5% 22.7% 18.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.