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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+5.61vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.43+6.52vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.61+4.92vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.95vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.47+3.60vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.51+2.12vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+7.07vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.25+1.52vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.47-0.79vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.24-4.70vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.45+1.46vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.44-3.20vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.97-2.83vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia2.39-1.14vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.82-8.06vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo0.75+1.23vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.93-2.77vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University2.52-5.88vs Predicted
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19Jacksonville University2.38-6.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.61St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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8.52Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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7.92Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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5.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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8.6Georgetown University3.470.0%1st Place
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8.12University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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14.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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9.52Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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8.21Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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5.3Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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12.46Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.8U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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10.17Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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12.86University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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6.94Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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17.23University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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14.23University of Michigan1.930.0%1st Place
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12.12Northeastern University2.520.0%1st Place
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12.38Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Curtiss | 7.9% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Marek Zaleski | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Golden | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Austin Neuman | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 16.8% | 10.5% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Scott Barbano | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.6% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 4.4% |
| Michael Popp | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Dirk Johnson | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 4.6% |
| Esteban Forrer | 10.3% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Rory Mess | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 58.8% |
| Christopher Cyr | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 20.9% | 11.4% |
| Sarah De Silva | 1.7% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 3.6% |
| Daniel Lawless | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.