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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+4.49vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.07vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+4.08vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+2.63vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.44+3.68vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.47+2.26vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.43+1.59vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.47+0.58vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.25+0.16vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia2.39+2.64vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+3.04vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.51-3.53vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.61-5.45vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.45-1.37vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo0.75+2.09vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.97-5.74vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.93-2.76vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University2.52-5.87vs Predicted
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19Jacksonville University2.38-6.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.49Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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6.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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7.08Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.63St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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8.68U. S. Naval Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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8.26Georgetown University3.470.1%1st Place
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8.59Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.58Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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9.16Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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12.64University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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14.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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8.47University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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7.55Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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12.63Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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17.09University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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10.26Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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14.24University of Michigan1.930.0%1st Place
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12.13Northeastern University2.520.0%1st Place
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12.42Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 12.1% | 13.8% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 10.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Sean Golden | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Marek Zaleski | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Scott Barbano | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 3.6% |
| Austin Neuman | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 17.6% | 9.8% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 4.0% |
| Rory Mess | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 58.5% |
| Dirk Johnson | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Christopher Cyr | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 14.8% | 19.0% | 12.6% |
| Sarah De Silva | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
| Daniel Lawless | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.