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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+5.65vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+3.51vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.43+5.65vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.51+4.18vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.47+3.57vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.82+0.92vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-1.03vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.47+0.56vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.44-0.73vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.97+0.35vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+3.10vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.61-3.89vs Predicted
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13Fordham University3.25-3.97vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia2.39-1.15vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University2.38-2.46vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.93-1.70vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo0.75+0.21vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University2.52-5.89vs Predicted
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19Washington College2.45-6.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.65St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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5.51Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.65Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.18University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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8.57Georgetown University3.470.0%1st Place
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6.92Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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5.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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8.56Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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8.27U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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10.35Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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14.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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8.11Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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9.03Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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12.85University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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12.54Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
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14.3University of Michigan1.930.0%1st Place
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17.21University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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12.11Northeastern University2.520.0%1st Place
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12.11Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Curtiss | 7.9% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Baird | 14.0% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marek Zaleski | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Sean Golden | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.6% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Michael Popp | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Dirk Johnson | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 18.1% | 9.1% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 4.7% |
| Daniel Lawless | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 4.6% |
| Christopher Cyr | 1.0% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 18.7% | 12.4% |
| Rory Mess | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 59.2% |
| Sarah De Silva | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 2.9% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.