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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.61+6.84vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.25+7.28vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+2.57vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.82+2.97vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.23vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.38+6.66vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.51+1.22vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.47+0.62vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.47-0.84vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.52+2.17vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-4.41vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.93+2.66vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.45-0.77vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.43-5.37vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.44-6.57vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia2.39-3.34vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo0.75+0.19vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.97-7.77vs Predicted
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19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-5.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.84Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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9.28Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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5.57Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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6.97Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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12.66Jacksonville University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.22University of Pennsylvania3.510.1%1st Place
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8.62Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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8.16Georgetown University3.470.1%1st Place
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12.17Northeastern University2.520.0%1st Place
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6.59St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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14.66University of Michigan1.930.0%1st Place
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12.23Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.63Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.43U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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12.66University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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17.19University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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10.23Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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13.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lalumiere | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.9% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.5% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Lawless | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 6.2% |
| Maximiliano Agnese | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Scott Barbano | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Sean Golden | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Sarah De Silva | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Cyr | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 15.2% | 20.0% | 12.8% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 4.0% |
| Marek Zaleski | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Michael Popp | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 5.0% |
| Rory Mess | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 12.2% | 59.0% |
| Dirk Johnson | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Austin Neuman | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 15.3% | 8.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.