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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.69+1.76vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+5.47vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley-0.60+6.38vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-0.19+3.05vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis-1.22+6.62vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.38+2.53vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.07+0.19vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+3.74vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz1.45-5.77vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-2.10+2.07vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.17-4.48vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.31-0.16vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-0.41vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.15+1.09vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-0.81-4.72vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.49-3.11vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley-0.75-7.06vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.35-2.25vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay-1.85-4.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.76University of California at Santa Cruz1.6932.3%1st Place
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7.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.276.2%1st Place
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9.38University of California at Berkeley-0.602.7%1st Place
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7.05University of California at Davis-0.195.9%1st Place
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11.62University of California at Davis-1.221.8%1st Place
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8.53University of California at Santa Cruz-0.383.1%1st Place
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7.19University of California at Santa Cruz0.075.4%1st Place
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11.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.8%1st Place
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3.23University of California at Santa Cruz1.4523.3%1st Place
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12.07University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.5%1st Place
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6.52University of California at Santa Cruz0.175.9%1st Place
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11.84University of California at Los Angeles-1.311.5%1st Place
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12.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.571.5%1st Place
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15.09University of California at Davis-2.150.7%1st Place
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10.28University of California at Berkeley-0.812.1%1st Place
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12.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.491.4%1st Place
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9.94University of California at Berkeley-0.752.1%1st Place
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15.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.350.3%1st Place
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14.04California State University Monterey Bay-1.850.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 32.3% | 22.7% | 16.4% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tessa Greene | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tony Gao | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 2.7% |
| Brily Petersen | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Caden Domingo | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 2.6% |
| Buster Baylis | 23.3% | 22.9% | 17.1% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 4.7% |
| Maggie McEachen | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elsa Hartley | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 17.8% | 23.4% |
| John Mayfield | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Griffin Vernon | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.4% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Brooke Hopwood | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 16.2% | 33.1% |
| Liam Marney | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 13.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.