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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+6.56vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+9.52vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz1.45+0.27vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz1.69-1.26vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis-0.19+1.96vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.07+1.32vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles-2.10+5.12vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.60+1.46vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-1.22+2.84vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.17-3.54vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.49+1.82vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.31-0.03vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.38-4.67vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.81-3.74vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-2.14vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-0.75-6.07vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-2.15-1.96vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay-1.85-4.03vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.35-3.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.275.0%1st Place
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11.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.4%1st Place
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3.27University of California at Santa Cruz1.4523.4%1st Place
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2.74University of California at Santa Cruz1.6931.4%1st Place
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6.96University of California at Davis-0.196.4%1st Place
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7.32University of California at Santa Cruz0.074.2%1st Place
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12.12University of California at Los Angeles-2.102.0%1st Place
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9.46University of California at Berkeley-0.603.4%1st Place
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11.84University of California at Davis-1.221.5%1st Place
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6.46University of California at Santa Cruz0.175.9%1st Place
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12.82Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.491.4%1st Place
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11.97University of California at Los Angeles-1.311.7%1st Place
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8.33University of California at Santa Cruz-0.383.8%1st Place
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10.26University of California at Berkeley-0.812.1%1st Place
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12.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.571.6%1st Place
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9.93University of California at Berkeley-0.752.5%1st Place
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15.04University of California at Davis-2.150.8%1st Place
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13.97California State University Monterey Bay-1.850.9%1st Place
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15.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.350.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Groom | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% |
| Buster Baylis | 23.4% | 21.9% | 17.2% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 31.4% | 24.9% | 15.8% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caden Domingo | 4.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Orion Spatafora | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| Tessa Greene | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Tony Gao | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
| Maggie McEachen | 5.9% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Vernon | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 7.0% |
| Elsa Hartley | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Brily Petersen | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| John Mayfield | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 6.7% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 17.2% | 22.7% |
| Liam Marney | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 14.2% |
| Brooke Hopwood | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 32.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.