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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Davis-0.19+6.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz1.69+0.68vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz1.45+0.32vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.07+3.19vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley-0.75+4.73vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+0.44vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-2.15+7.93vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+3.73vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.38-0.64vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.81+0.15vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.60-1.59vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.22-0.52vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.49-0.01vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.31-1.97vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.35+0.57vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay-1.85-2.03vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-4.61vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-5.00vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-11.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.1University of California at Davis-0.195.5%1st Place
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2.68University of California at Santa Cruz1.6932.0%1st Place
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3.32University of California at Santa Cruz1.4522.9%1st Place
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7.19University of California at Santa Cruz0.075.8%1st Place
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9.73University of California at Berkeley-0.752.7%1st Place
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6.44University of California at Santa Cruz0.175.1%1st Place
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14.93University of California at Davis-2.151.1%1st Place
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11.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.8%1st Place
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8.36University of California at Santa Cruz-0.384.2%1st Place
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10.15University of California at Berkeley-0.812.9%1st Place
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9.41University of California at Berkeley-0.602.8%1st Place
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11.48University of California at Davis-1.221.7%1st Place
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12.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.491.1%1st Place
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12.03University of California at Los Angeles-1.311.8%1st Place
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15.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.350.4%1st Place
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13.97California State University Monterey Bay-1.850.9%1st Place
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12.39University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.2%1st Place
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13.0Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.571.0%1st Place
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7.53Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.275.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 32.0% | 25.4% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 22.9% | 21.4% | 16.2% | 14.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caden Domingo | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Maggie McEachen | 5.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Conti | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 24.6% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Brily Petersen | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| John Mayfield | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Tessa Greene | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Tony Gao | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| Griffin Vernon | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| Elsa Hartley | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Brooke Hopwood | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 17.6% | 30.8% |
| Liam Marney | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 14.2% | 12.8% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 4.9% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.