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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.69+1.75vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz1.45+1.24vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.07+4.16vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+3.52vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+1.59vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-1.22+5.82vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-0.19-0.05vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.38+0.48vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.49+3.96vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.60-0.63vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.75-1.06vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-2.10+0.19vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-1.85+1.07vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.31-1.94vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.15-0.09vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-0.81-5.80vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.35-1.55vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94-6.46vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-6.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.75University of California at Santa Cruz1.6931.4%1st Place
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3.24University of California at Santa Cruz1.4522.6%1st Place
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7.16University of California at Santa Cruz0.075.7%1st Place
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7.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.275.5%1st Place
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6.59University of California at Santa Cruz0.176.2%1st Place
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11.82University of California at Davis-1.221.1%1st Place
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6.95University of California at Davis-0.195.4%1st Place
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8.48University of California at Santa Cruz-0.383.8%1st Place
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12.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.491.1%1st Place
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9.37University of California at Berkeley-0.603.8%1st Place
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9.94University of California at Berkeley-0.752.1%1st Place
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12.19University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.3%1st Place
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14.07California State University Monterey Bay-1.850.9%1st Place
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12.06University of California at Los Angeles-1.311.6%1st Place
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14.91University of California at Davis-2.150.9%1st Place
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10.2University of California at Berkeley-0.812.6%1st Place
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15.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.350.5%1st Place
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11.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.942.0%1st Place
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12.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.571.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 31.4% | 24.1% | 16.5% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 22.6% | 22.8% | 17.3% | 14.2% | 9.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caden Domingo | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Maggie McEachen | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tony Gao | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brily Petersen | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Griffin Vernon | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 6.8% |
| Tessa Greene | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Connor Fagan | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.8% |
| Liam Marney | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 14.3% |
| Elsa Hartley | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 4.1% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 24.0% |
| John Mayfield | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Brooke Hopwood | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 15.8% | 31.1% |
| Nathan Briar | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.7% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.